The Iran Nuclear Deal

Welp, chalk up another stunning foreign diplomacy victory for the Obama administration. He’s successfully negotiated with a country we’ve been unable to deal with diplomatically since 1979.*

Of course, the problem is, the Obama/Kerry foreign policy brain trust reached this historic agreement with Iran by simply capitulating to virtually every Iranian demand.

[youtube https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uBvIg_zRgiY]

Worse still, our own Republican controlled United States Senate has jiggered the rules to make it virtually impossible for the Congress to halt implementation of this agreement.

One of the first effects of the deal will be the lifting of sanctions on Iran, which will result in an immediate cash infusion of about $100 billion dollars into the Iranian economy. You’ll note that the administration claims this money will go solely to improving Iran’s economy. Well, yeah, maybe. Some will undoubtedly go to funding terrorist proxies that are fighting the US and its allies. And of course, the secondary effects of an improvement in the Iranian economy include increased internal stability in Iran (lo for the days when the US might have actually supported the nascent Green Revolution and weakened or overturned the ayatollahs regime) and of course, since money is fungible, the already existing outlays by Iran to support terror will have even less domestic impact on their economy. That is, if they can afford to support terror while under economic sanctions, how will improving their economy make it harder for them to continue to export terror?

Europe, of course, is willing to go along with this, as they suspect that a fair percentage of these billions of dollars will be spent buying from Europe.  And Europe is so desperate to support their own social welfare programs that taking Iranian money makes sense to them, particularly as they labor under the misconception that the United States is and perpetually will continue to be the guarantor of their security.

Iran for its part, once in possession of nuclear weapons, need not actually employ them to achieve their foreign policy goals. Much as Pakistan and North Korea intuited, mere possession of a valid nuclear force renders any possibility of invasion moot.  Far from this agreement steering Iran to enter the fold of the nations of the world, it gives Iran a shield from behind which to further attack its neighbors and adversaries.

Of course, a nuclear armed Iran poses an existential threat to many nations in the region, particularly Saudi Arabia. A nuclear arms race is virtually guaranteed, and we already know that Saudi Arabia is likely to simply purchase weapons off the shelf from Pakistan, whose program they are widely thought to have helped finance in the first place. Other nations in the Gulf might similarly procure weapons.  And as anyone who has studies nuclear proliferation and nuclear war strategy quickly finds, the risk of a nuclear power making a decision to use a nuclear weapon goes up very quickly as the number of possessor nations increases. Sooner or later, instability or poor strategic decision making leads a “player” in the nuclear game to the conclusion that using nuclear weapons is a better option than not using them. When that eventually comes to pass, there will be no telling where it may end.

But hey, Obama and Kerry get to tout a major foreign policy accomplishment, establishing an enduring legacy of accomplishment. And that’s really the important thing here.

Norks

*With the exception of the Iran/Contra deal.

7 thoughts on “The Iran Nuclear Deal”

  1. Congress never had a say until the Corker bill. This isn’t a treaty, the sanctions legislation gave the Executive – probably because nobody anticipated someone with a sociopathic level of narcissism winning an election – the power to determine when Iran was in compliance and lift the sanctions. These discussions were about what Iran needs to do to achieve that (apparently it involves thigh-high boots and a bullwhip). With the Corker bill, Congressional Democrats will be forced on the record to approve this bill, which would make re-election post nuclear Iran substantially more difficult. It’s even possible that Obama doesn’t have enough support to sustain his veto, which would be pudding-worthy.

    Maybe we’ll get lucky and the Mossad can delay the program until we get an actual American in the White House to end things by bombing anything in Iran more complicated than an inclined plane in Operation BARRY IS A MORON.

  2. This will be a huge boom, not only for the economy of Iran, but for the EU and the US. GM can once again sell cars, Shell, Elf, and Tesaro can drill for oil and gas and build refineries so that Iran will no longer have to import gasoline to fuel the cars of their people, we can import pistachios from Iran!
    It will be a wonderful boost for the economies of the EU, Russia(selling them weapons), and the US!
    It will get kind of sour when a ship-born nuke goes-off in Long Beach and New York harbors and a Shahib borne nuke goes off over Telaviv.
    Barak will have his LEGACY!

  3. I haven’t seen the details of the agreement but then again I’ve heard an awful lot from people that haven’t seen it either. I’d reserve judgement until then – considering the alternative seems to be a pre-emptive strike and another Middle East war.

    I also tend to get tired of the comparison to the pop history understanding of Neville Chamberlain. In 1938 Britain’s massive rearmament program had just got underway. It was obvious that Hitler would eventually look west for his next territorial grab so the UK defence chiefs advised the PM to play for time. They needed at least two more years for the RAF fighter programs, the massive shipbuilding effort and radar system deployment to come to fruition. Even then, they only just succeeded.

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