Here’s Why U.K.-Argentina Tensions are Rising Again Over the Falklands | TIME

Michael Fallon told Parliament the government planned to spend £180 million ($268 million) over the next 10 years to boost the security of the islands as part of a defense review, although the level of military and civilian personnel involved would remain at around 1,200.

“The principle threat to the islands remains,” he told legislators. “I am confident that, following this review, we have the right deployment.”

via Here’s Why U.K.-Argentina Tensions are Rising Again Over the Falklands | TIME.

For the most part, Kirchner is just saber rattling for domestic consumption. I suppose Argentine could try something. If they do get their hands on some old Russian Su-24s, they probably could successfully raid the airfield. But their amphibious shipping is virtually non-existent.

Britain should also quietly remind Argentina that while they may not have aircraft carriers available, they do have Tomahawk armed nuclear attack submarines that can hold mainland Argentine targets at risk.

7 thoughts on “Here’s Why U.K.-Argentina Tensions are Rising Again Over the Falklands | TIME”

  1. Not just that, but those are OLD Su’s
    The Typhoons would butcher them without them even knowing what was happening

    1. Up to a certain point, at least.

      How many Typhoons are there? How many missiles can each one carry?

      Argentina only needs to sortie that many aircraft plus about 3 or 4 to tie up the Typhoons while their strike package craters the runways.

      1. They could (conceivably) take out the airfield. But then what? They have approximately ONE company of amphibious lift.

    2. There are four Typhoons in 1435 Flight at RAF Mt. Pleasant, with three supposedly available for QRA at any one time. It looks like the standard Falklands QRA loadout is four AMRAAMs and two fuel tanks.

      So, on an average day the RAF has three Typhoons and 12 AMRAAMs available on alert–16 if the fourth aircraft can be surged for an alert.

      Argentina is supposedly getting 12 Su-24s. Giving the Argies the benefit of the doubt on maintenance, training, and crews, presume about ten would be available at any one time for a strike.

      Wiki claims the AMRAAM has a a 46% success rate in live engagements (6 targets for 13 missiles). Using that as a base line (which may or may not be correct but its the only number I could find) means 1435 Flight could take out something like 5.5 targets with the normal alert, and 7.4 with a surge. Assuming the fractional hits force an aircraft to abort, that means 4 aircraft get through on a typical day, 3 with a surge QRA.

      In a worst case scenario of three Typhoons against all 12 Su-24s, six attackers get through.

      Then its a question of what weapons the Su-24s employ determining if the Rapier SAMs get a shot at the leakers.

      Finally, the Typhoon can also have up to four ASRAAMs/AIM-9s added to the 4 AMRAAMs typically carried by 1435 Flight. Adjusting the QRA loadout could add an additional 6 to 12 ASRAAMs/AIM-9s (2-4 on each aircraft), going up to between 8 to 16 if the fourth aircraft is surged.

    3. Thanks, JJAK – I didn’t feel like doing the lookups.

      Argentina could simply saturate the Falkland air defense with “expendable” aircraft on, essentially, suicide missions to soak up the AAMs and SAMs. Once the Rapiers are reloading and the Typhoons are Winchester, then up comes the actual raid.

      As far as amphibious lift … Brad, I know that Red Storm Rising is one of your favorite books. How many infantrymen could you fit in a RO/RO container ship, which gets smashed into a pier in Port Stanley?

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