From a friend:
By and large, the policy class has an aversion to simple and/or intuitive explanations. They generally would prefer nuanced and wrong to simple and right, because the theories don’t serve predictive purposes. They are used as status markers and ego adornments. So the fatal flaw in connecting these dots was exactly that a two year old could do it. It used to be that experts worried about saying wrong things. Now they worry about saying common things. This has predictable effects in those corners of policy where reality provides immediate feedback.